The King's Acceptance Speech

The Oscars are pointless, arbitrary, probably a waste of money, and do not reflect in any way the quality of the films released this year. Yet, why do we obsess over making predictions about it? Because it’s fun, damn it. And making predictions makes me feel like a pundit.

Best Picture: This is going to come down to The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network. Anything else is out of the question. Inception may have been the best film of the year, but its chances dwindled significantly when Christopher Nolan was snubbed for a Best Director nomination. Despite overwhelming critical support for The Social Network, The King’s Speech will edge it out. It’s the kind of movie the Academy likes, the kind of movie it wants to represent the industry: an uplifting, period piece with lots of big Acting. The Social Network is a much better film and will survive for many years as a document of our times, but it’s also more cynical, probably a bit too cynical for the Academy. The King’s Speech is a very good film that fits into the Academy’s comfort zone.

Best Director: Like 2005, 2002, 2000 and 1998, this will be one of the rare years when Best Director and Best Picture diverge. It will also be one of the rare years when the Director’s Guild and the Academy will differ. Not only did David Fincher do a better directorial job for The Social Network than Tom Hooper did for The King’s Speech, he also did a more noticeable job. In fact, the most noticeable aspects of Hooper’s directing (especially shot composition) are a little stranger and more unconventional than the Academy’s normal taste. The Academy rarely gives Oscars to directors without a lot of experience; notice the nominations, but no award for directors like Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction and Paul Greengrass for United 93 (and those directors actually have distinct directorial styles). Like Danny Boyle’s award for Slumdog Millionaire, this will be a relatively early career achievement award for a film-circle favorite who hasn’t yet received Academy recognition. But unlike Danny Boyle, David Fincher deserves this award.

Best Actor: There is no surer bet in the Oscars this year than Colin Firth winning for his performance in The King’s Speech. He played a royal figure with a disability who has to face the Nazis in the favorite for Best Picture. Plus, it was a terrific performance. Jeff Bridges and Javier Bardem won awards recently (and Bardem is in a film that not enough Academy members have seen). James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg are relatively early in their careers. The Academy will want to reward Firth for his performance and for several years of work that has not received a lot of Oscar recognition.

Best Actress: This one comes down to a tough race between Natalie Portman for Black Swan and Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right. Both have been highly acclaimed. Both gave great performances. But this category might end up working in the opposite manner of Best Actor: recognizing a young actress who gave an exciting, out-there performance rather than an old pro who gave an deeply emotional but not showy performance. When in doubt in the Oscars, it’s best to go with the Guild Awards. And Natalie Portman won the Screen Actors Guild Award. I would love to see Jennifer Lawrence win for Winter's Bone, but that's quite a long shot.

Best Original Screenplay: History tells us that this Oscar should go to a low-key Indie comedy that has no chance of winning Best Picture (Lost in Translation, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno), and this year that would be The Kids Are All Right. But this rule is negated when the Best Picture winner is an original screenplay (Crash, The Hurt Locker). And The King’s Speech is an original screenplay. There is a chance that this category could give a consolation award to Christopher Nolan for not receiving a Best Director nomination. Nolan did win the Writer’s Guild Award, but The King’s Speech was disqualified from that competition for some strange reason. It’s most likely that this category will get swept up with the tide for The King’s Speech.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. Period. No question. It’s non-linear, tackles a possibly silly storyline, deals with complex themes and has great rapid-fire dialogue. This might even be a surer bet than Colin Firth.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale for The Fighter. It’s an exciting, out-there, physically demanding performance that’s almost certain to win. Geoffrey Rush is a close runner-up for The King’s Speech, but Bale has already gotten the tell-tale SAG Award.

Best Supporting Actress: Most likely Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. The Academy usually likes to reward good performances by young actors, and Melissa Leo and Amy Adams are likely to split the vote for The Fighter.

Best Cinematography: This comes down to two cinematographers whose Oscars are long overdue: Roger Deakins (True Grit) and Wally Pfister (Inception). I would really like to see Pfister get his Oscar, but Deakins’ award is longer overdue (I mean, really, Fargo, The Shawshank Redemption, No Country for Old Men, and the list goes on and on). I am a little disturbed by Deakins’ defection to digital, but his work for True Grit is no less deserving. It’s wonderfully well done and features some of the kind of beautiful landscape cinematography that the Academy loves.

Best Editing: I’ve already written about this extensively, so I won’t really go into why 127 Hours should not have been nominated, why Inception should have been, and why The Social Network should win. All I will add is that The Social Network will win.

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3. Do you really have to ask when there’s a Pixar movie in the category?

Best Foreign Film: I really have no idea. Biutiful is the most widely seen, but got a lukewarm critical response. I’ve heard that Incendies is likely to win, so I’ll go with that.

Best Art Direction: It’s usually best to go with either the period piece or the outlandish fantasy in this category. Since there are two period pieces (The King’s Speech and True Grit) that don’t have really noticeable art direction, let’s go with the outlandish fantasy (Alice in Wonderland). The deserving winner is Inception (architecture did figure heavily in the plot), but it’s probably not noticeable enough.

Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland. See previous category for reasoning.

Best Makeup: The Wolfman. Guy turns into a wolf. ‘Nuf said, pretty much. And it’s Rick Baker.

Best Visual Effects: Alice in Wonderland clearly has the most visual effects, but Inception had the best. Academy voters will want to give Inception something, and they will certainly remember the image of Paris folding over itself.

Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross will win for The Social Network, having already won the Golden Globe. Hans Zimmer’s score for Inception was my favorite, but I won’t mind when The Social Network wins.

Best Original Song: Let’s go with Toy Story 3. There were no popular musicals this year or movie with a popular theme song (there haven’t been many of that last one in a while).

Best Sound Editing: Inception. Popular action movie seems to be a good bet.

Best Sound Mixing: I really have no idea what makes these two different, but there must be some reason why The Social Network was nominated for this one and not the other, so I’ll go with that.

Do I really have to pick the Best Short Films? I haven’t seen any of them or heard anything about them, so it really wouldn’t be fair to anyone involved for me to pick one.

Best Documentary: Restrepo was one of the best films of the year, but the Academy is likely to give the award to Exit Through the Gift Shop (if only to see if Banksy will actually show up).

So, let’s recap the predictions (not preferences):

Best Picture: The King’s Speech

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit

Best Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Social Network

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Film: Incendies

Best Art Direction: Robert Stromberg and Karen O’Hara, Alice in Wonderland

Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup: Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman

Best Visual Effects: Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, Pete Bebb, Paul J. Franklin, Inception

Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

Best Original Song: “We Belong Together,” Randy Newman, Toy Story 3

Best Sound Editing: Richard King, Inception

Best Sound Mixing: Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Mark Weingarten, The Social Network

Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop

But the real question is: will I actually sit through the entire ceremony or will I just wait for the updates on IMDB?